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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 638

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 638

First, a quick reminder: We’d love to get to know more about our readers, hear your thoughts on Firstlinks and see how we can make it better for you. Please complete this short survey, and have your say. **** Regular readers will know that dementia has become a topic affecting me personally with both my parents being diagnosed with the condition in ...
Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

For more years than I care to remember, I, along with many other retirement commentators, have had an unhealthy adherence to the concept of the retirement journey. Don’t get me wrong. I do understand that, unless you die early or work forever, most people will experience some form of retirement life stage. But I am now questioning the assumption that ...
How much does it really cost to raise a child?

How much does it really cost to raise a child?

Australians are having fewer children than ever. At 1.5 babies per woman, the fertility rate is at a record low. Many attribute this to the cost of having and raising children. If this is true, it raises questions of intergenerational fairness and future planning for governments. What do we do about the young would-be parents who are opting out because ...
Passive ETF investors may be in for a rude shock

Passive ETF investors may be in for a rude shock

If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.– Adam Smith, The Money Game The Money Game remains one of my favourite all-time investment books. Both funny and wise, it was published during the first great tech boom, in 1967. This was a few years before Buffett decided to close his early partnerships due to a lack of value ...
Bank reporting season scorecard November 2025

Bank reporting season scorecard November 2025

Unlike the past few bank reporting seasons, there was little trepidation from investors going into the November 2025 season. The last few bank reporting seasons had been very consistent, with a similar story of high margins, solid loan growth, strong capital, and minimal bad debts. An excellent position for investors with a large weighting to the ...
The real winners from the AI rush

The real winners from the AI rush

AI has been the story of the past few years in markets. It’s an AI rush, and like the gold rush that occurred in the 19th century, those who are winning are not who you would expect. In the mid-19th century, California was home to the gold rush. People from all over the world made their way to Northern California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains in ...
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 637

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 637

Michael Burry, the investor who famously predicted the subprime mortgage bubble bursting in 2008 and was a central character in Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short, recently revealed that he is shorting more than a billion dollars of shares in tech high-fliers Palantir and Nvidia. Both stocks tanked on the news, though they have recovered some since, and ...
Warren Buffett’s final lesson

Warren Buffett’s final lesson

For a long time, I’ve viewed Warren Buffett as a flawed man. A supreme investor, but a flawed man. It was a view primarily based on Alice Schroeder’s biography of Buffett, The Snowball, in 2008. It painted a picture of Buffett’s private life that wasn’t pretty. That his investing obsession and work ethic took a toll on family life. That he was very ...
The housing market is heading into choppy waters

The housing market is heading into choppy waters

My focus today is the housing market — I fear we’re sailing into dangerous waters. Let’s start with interest rates. The Reserve Bank has spoken and, as widely predicted, rates are on hold — at least for now. But the big question is: where to next? I’m one of 32 so-called experts asked each month to forecast what the Reserve Bank will do at its upcoming ...
Dumb money triumphant

Dumb money triumphant

Is the U.S. stock market in a bubble? I doubt we’re there yet, but one sign of speculative froth is the recent success of retail investors. On average, retail investors exhibit anti-skill in their stock selection decisions, meaning that their holdings underperform the market. So when retail investors are winning, that tells you that market conditions ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 638

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 638
First, a quick reminder: We’d love to get to know more about our readers, hear your thoughts on Firstlinks and see how we can make it better for you. Please complete this short survey, and have your say. **** Regular readers will know that dementia has become a topic affecting me personally with both my parents being diagnosed with the condition in ...

Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey
For more years than I care to remember, I, along with many other retirement commentators, have had an unhealthy adherence to the concept of the retirement journey. Don’t get me wrong. I do understand that, unless you die early or work forever, most people will experience some form of retirement life stage. But I am now questioning the assumption that ...

How much does it really cost to raise a child?

How much does it really cost to raise a child?
Australians are having fewer children than ever. At 1.5 babies per woman, the fertility rate is at a record low. Many attribute this to the cost of having and raising children. If this is true, it raises questions of intergenerational fairness and future planning for governments. What do we do about the young would-be parents who are opting out because ...

Passive ETF investors may be in for a rude shock

Passive ETF investors may be in for a rude shock
If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.– Adam Smith, The Money Game The Money Game remains one of my favourite all-time investment books. Both funny and wise, it was published during the first great tech boom, in 1967. This was a few years before Buffett decided to close his early partnerships due to a lack of value ...

Bank reporting season scorecard November 2025

Bank reporting season scorecard November 2025
Unlike the past few bank reporting seasons, there was little trepidation from investors going into the November 2025 season. The last few bank reporting seasons had been very consistent, with a similar story of high margins, solid loan growth, strong capital, and minimal bad debts. An excellent position for investors with a large weighting to the ...

The real winners from the AI rush

The real winners from the AI rush
AI has been the story of the past few years in markets. It’s an AI rush, and like the gold rush that occurred in the 19th century, those who are winning are not who you would expect. In the mid-19th century, California was home to the gold rush. People from all over the world made their way to Northern California and the Sierra Nevada Mountains in ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 637

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 637
Michael Burry, the investor who famously predicted the subprime mortgage bubble bursting in 2008 and was a central character in Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short, recently revealed that he is shorting more than a billion dollars of shares in tech high-fliers Palantir and Nvidia. Both stocks tanked on the news, though they have recovered some since, and ...

Warren Buffett’s final lesson

Warren Buffett’s final lesson
For a long time, I’ve viewed Warren Buffett as a flawed man. A supreme investor, but a flawed man. It was a view primarily based on Alice Schroeder’s biography of Buffett, The Snowball, in 2008. It painted a picture of Buffett’s private life that wasn’t pretty. That his investing obsession and work ethic took a toll on family life. That he was very ...

The housing market is heading into choppy waters

The housing market is heading into choppy waters
My focus today is the housing market — I fear we’re sailing into dangerous waters. Let’s start with interest rates. The Reserve Bank has spoken and, as widely predicted, rates are on hold — at least for now. But the big question is: where to next? I’m one of 32 so-called experts asked each month to forecast what the Reserve Bank will do at its upcoming ...

Dumb money triumphant

Dumb money triumphant
Is the U.S. stock market in a bubble? I doubt we’re there yet, but one sign of speculative froth is the recent success of retail investors. On average, retail investors exhibit anti-skill in their stock selection decisions, meaning that their holdings underperform the market. So when retail investors are winning, that tells you that market conditions ...