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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 626

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 626

Recently, I watched the hit Netflix series, Adolescence, and it was both confronting and depressing. The show is about a 13-year-old boy accused of murdering a classmate. Well-known UK actor, Stephen Graham, plays the boy’s father and he also co-created the show. He says the inspiration for Adolescence came from reading about a recent spate of ...
Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

A pop quiz: What percentage of migrants to Australia last year were skilled workers? I asked this question to a work colleague and her answer was 50%. I think that would be about ball-park consensus. The actual number: 13%. And that’s split between skilled workers on permanent visas (6%) and skilled workers on temporary visas (7%). There’s a widespread ...
Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

I’ve been at this investing game a long time. Long enough to see cycles repeat themselves, cycles that I literally thought I would never again see. Yet in finance, everything repeats. You just need to keep your discipline and recognize things for what they are. Let’s take a step back and start with a bit of a disclaimer. I’m an old-school investor. If ...
Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Scott McNealy, the co-founder of Sun Microsystems, delivered the burial rites for the dot-com bubble with a quote that should be chiselled into the marble of big bank headquarters and the RBA board room. Assessing his company’s own ludicrous stock price, he said: At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues ...
ASX reporting season: Room for optimism

ASX reporting season: Room for optimism

Depending on who you ask, you’ll get the answer you want on the ASX reporting season. There have been enough positive surprises, earnings upgrades and share price reactions to support a bull(ish) view and there have been enough disappointments, earnings downgrades and share price declines to support a bear(ish) view. But truth told, this is always the ...
A Bunnings play without the hefty price tag

A Bunnings play without the hefty price tag

Phoenix has long discussed the importance of assessing governance in its investment process. The much-repeated Charlie Munger quote “show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome,” rings as true today as when he first said it. As such, we have maintained a preference for internally managed vehicles over those managed externally by fund ...
Replacing bank hybrids with something similar

Replacing bank hybrids with something similar

As a holder of bank hybrids in my super fund, I have recently been pondering the APRA-confirmed phasing out of ASX-listed bank hybrid securities from January 2027. This follows APRA and ASIC concerns over complexity risk. More technically, these are Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments, which together with Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1), consisting ...
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 625

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 625

Recently, I attended the 50th birthday party of a good friend and amid the celebrations, the conversations took an unexpected detour. Naturally at these events, there’s talk of what people are up to, how their children are and what commonly held friends are up to. However, the conversation quickly turned to parents and their various ailments. Given ...
Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

The Australian government has “an appetite to be bold and ambitious” in its economic reform agenda. Here, we serve some food for thought – the taxation of owner-occupied housing. This may seem distasteful, but there are some strong arguments for doing so. Tax breaks for owner-occupied housing are very large The size of tax concessions for ...
Meg on SMSFs: Ageing and its financial challenges

Meg on SMSFs: Ageing and its financial challenges

Our clients are getting older. I guess we all are. But in an SMSF, older clients face different challenges. One we’re being asked about a lot at the moment in particular goes something like this: An example Ted is 80, a widower. He’s the only member of his SMSF and it owns a property worth $2.4m (the fund bought it a while ago for $1.7m). It has been a ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 626

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 626
Recently, I watched the hit Netflix series, Adolescence, and it was both confronting and depressing. The show is about a 13-year-old boy accused of murdering a classmate. Well-known UK actor, Stephen Graham, plays the boy’s father and he also co-created the show. He says the inspiration for Adolescence came from reading about a recent spate of ...

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration
A pop quiz: What percentage of migrants to Australia last year were skilled workers? I asked this question to a work colleague and her answer was 50%. I think that would be about ball-park consensus. The actual number: 13%. And that’s split between skilled workers on permanent visas (6%) and skilled workers on temporary visas (7%). There’s a widespread ...

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly
I’ve been at this investing game a long time. Long enough to see cycles repeat themselves, cycles that I literally thought I would never again see. Yet in finance, everything repeats. You just need to keep your discipline and recognize things for what they are. Let’s take a step back and start with a bit of a disclaimer. I’m an old-school investor. If ...

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?
Scott McNealy, the co-founder of Sun Microsystems, delivered the burial rites for the dot-com bubble with a quote that should be chiselled into the marble of big bank headquarters and the RBA board room. Assessing his company’s own ludicrous stock price, he said: At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues ...

ASX reporting season: Room for optimism

ASX reporting season: Room for optimism
Depending on who you ask, you’ll get the answer you want on the ASX reporting season. There have been enough positive surprises, earnings upgrades and share price reactions to support a bull(ish) view and there have been enough disappointments, earnings downgrades and share price declines to support a bear(ish) view. But truth told, this is always the ...

A Bunnings play without the hefty price tag

A Bunnings play without the hefty price tag
Phoenix has long discussed the importance of assessing governance in its investment process. The much-repeated Charlie Munger quote “show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome,” rings as true today as when he first said it. As such, we have maintained a preference for internally managed vehicles over those managed externally by fund ...

Replacing bank hybrids with something similar

Replacing bank hybrids with something similar
As a holder of bank hybrids in my super fund, I have recently been pondering the APRA-confirmed phasing out of ASX-listed bank hybrid securities from January 2027. This follows APRA and ASIC concerns over complexity risk. More technically, these are Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments, which together with Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1), consisting ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 625

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 625
Recently, I attended the 50th birthday party of a good friend and amid the celebrations, the conversations took an unexpected detour. Naturally at these events, there’s talk of what people are up to, how their children are and what commonly held friends are up to. However, the conversation quickly turned to parents and their various ailments. Given ...

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home
The Australian government has “an appetite to be bold and ambitious” in its economic reform agenda. Here, we serve some food for thought – the taxation of owner-occupied housing. This may seem distasteful, but there are some strong arguments for doing so. Tax breaks for owner-occupied housing are very large The size of tax concessions for ...

Meg on SMSFs: Ageing and its financial challenges

Meg on SMSFs: Ageing and its financial challenges
Our clients are getting older. I guess we all are. But in an SMSF, older clients face different challenges. One we’re being asked about a lot at the moment in particular goes something like this: An example Ted is 80, a widower. He’s the only member of his SMSF and it owns a property worth $2.4m (the fund bought it a while ago for $1.7m). It has been a ...