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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669

Something has been bothering me. The recent budget has produced its usual flurry of commentary (and rightfully so). However, one thing that has stood out over the last month or so, is a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Perhaps not only a product of the measures themselves, but the contradictory explanations offered by those responsible for them. June ...
Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

To get its capital gains tax and negative gearing changes through the Parliament, the Government agreed to act on one of the Greens’ longstanding bugbears : SMSFs borrowing to buy residential property. Obviously this is bad news for those about to embark on a borrowing – so what exactly is happening and how will it impact SMSFs? What is changing? In ...
Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

The change came a long way back—but at first it didn’t show. The manner remains intact for some time after the morale cracks.- F Scott Fitzgerald The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook puts the Australian share market at the top of the global leaderboard for returns since 1900. Australia has the highest returns over the 123 years of ...
The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

In reference to the proposed new capital gains tax arrangements before parliament, Anthony Albanese told the House of Representatives post-budget that, “we’re moving towards the system that was in place before 1999 to tax real gains, not nominal gains.” Except that that is not entirely true. Yes, indexing the capital cost base to inflation is being ...
The next phase of Australian equity leadership

The next phase of Australian equity leadership

Australian equities are navigating an increasingly complex macro backdrop. Inflation remains above the RBA’s target range, geopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains and energy markets, and the path for interest rates is proving more uncertain than expected at the start of the year. While the domestic economy has held up relatively well, higher ...
Global market growth hinges on Iran War and AI rollout

Global market growth hinges on Iran War and AI rollout

Global economic growth is coming under pressure due to the Iran war, rising oil prices and ongoing trade disputes. But one powerful engine is more than making up for it: AI-related investment spending. My colleague, economist Darrell Spence believes the artificial intelligence boom is so massive that even if activity in all other sectors contracted, ...
The retirees who can’t spend

The retirees who can’t spend

A retiree sits on a comfortable balance, takes only the minimum drawdown from an account-based pension, and frets about money anyway. Ask why they don't spend more and the answer comes back in the language of caution. What if I live longer than expected? What if the market turns? What if I need care? The fear is understandable. The odd thing is how ...
Here’s my investment philosophy. What’s yours?

Here’s my investment philosophy. What’s yours?

An email from a reader got me thinking about my investment philosophy. “Often, financial authors, advisors, and experts refer to investment philosophy. What do they mean by this, and what are the principles of forming one?” I responded, but it was such a good question—and frankly, such a thought-provoking exercise for me to articulate my own investment ...
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 668

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 668

I’m pleased to announce that Simonelle Mody will be taking over as the new Firstlinks’ editor. Throughout the process of finding a new editor I’ve been thinking a lot about Graham and James. I wanted to find an editor who respected what they built and who was bold enough to ensure that Firstlinks continues to support the evolving needs of investors in ...
Choose your hedges wisely… and often

Choose your hedges wisely… and often

For decades, the investment community operated under a comfortable assumption. By blending a dominant share of growth assets with a fixed sleeve of government bonds, diversification was expected to automatically smooth out market turbulence. It was a beautifully simple framework, rooted in the predictable inverse relationship between corporate ...
Yields take centre stage again

Yields take centre stage again

If we stop the clock on 2026, the fixed income story of the year is undoubtedly higher yields. Government bond yields in Australia and around the world have been moving upwards in response to higher inflation, with the mid-east war and higher oil prices adding fresh momentum. In Australia, the 3-year government bond yield has pushed out ~30bps since ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669
Something has been bothering me. The recent budget has produced its usual flurry of commentary (and rightfully so). However, one thing that has stood out over the last month or so, is a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Perhaps not only a product of the measures themselves, but the contradictory explanations offered by those responsible for them. June ...

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?
To get its capital gains tax and negative gearing changes through the Parliament, the Government agreed to act on one of the Greens’ longstanding bugbears : SMSFs borrowing to buy residential property. Obviously this is bad news for those about to embark on a borrowing – so what exactly is happening and how will it impact SMSFs? What is changing? In ...

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world
The change came a long way back—but at first it didn’t show. The manner remains intact for some time after the morale cracks.- F Scott Fitzgerald The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook puts the Australian share market at the top of the global leaderboard for returns since 1900. Australia has the highest returns over the 123 years of ...

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax
In reference to the proposed new capital gains tax arrangements before parliament, Anthony Albanese told the House of Representatives post-budget that, “we’re moving towards the system that was in place before 1999 to tax real gains, not nominal gains.” Except that that is not entirely true. Yes, indexing the capital cost base to inflation is being ...

The next phase of Australian equity leadership

The next phase of Australian equity leadership
Australian equities are navigating an increasingly complex macro backdrop. Inflation remains above the RBA’s target range, geopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains and energy markets, and the path for interest rates is proving more uncertain than expected at the start of the year. While the domestic economy has held up relatively well, higher ...

Global market growth hinges on Iran War and AI rollout

Global market growth hinges on Iran War and AI rollout
Global economic growth is coming under pressure due to the Iran war, rising oil prices and ongoing trade disputes. But one powerful engine is more than making up for it: AI-related investment spending. My colleague, economist Darrell Spence believes the artificial intelligence boom is so massive that even if activity in all other sectors contracted, ...

The retirees who can’t spend

The retirees who can’t spend
A retiree sits on a comfortable balance, takes only the minimum drawdown from an account-based pension, and frets about money anyway. Ask why they don't spend more and the answer comes back in the language of caution. What if I live longer than expected? What if the market turns? What if I need care? The fear is understandable. The odd thing is how ...

Here’s my investment philosophy. What’s yours?

Here’s my investment philosophy. What’s yours?
An email from a reader got me thinking about my investment philosophy. “Often, financial authors, advisors, and experts refer to investment philosophy. What do they mean by this, and what are the principles of forming one?” I responded, but it was such a good question—and frankly, such a thought-provoking exercise for me to articulate my own investment ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 668

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 668
I’m pleased to announce that Simonelle Mody will be taking over as the new Firstlinks’ editor. Throughout the process of finding a new editor I’ve been thinking a lot about Graham and James. I wanted to find an editor who respected what they built and who was bold enough to ensure that Firstlinks continues to support the evolving needs of investors in ...

Choose your hedges wisely… and often

Choose your hedges wisely… and often
For decades, the investment community operated under a comfortable assumption. By blending a dominant share of growth assets with a fixed sleeve of government bonds, diversification was expected to automatically smooth out market turbulence. It was a beautifully simple framework, rooted in the predictable inverse relationship between corporate ...

Yields take centre stage again

Yields take centre stage again
If we stop the clock on 2026, the fixed income story of the year is undoubtedly higher yields. Government bond yields in Australia and around the world have been moving upwards in response to higher inflation, with the mid-east war and higher oil prices adding fresh momentum. In Australia, the 3-year government bond yield has pushed out ~30bps since ...