The world economy is not yet sliding into recession, but the outlook has become more difficult. Growth through 2026 will be challenged by the Iran war, the associated oil shock, rising inflation, and weakening confidence in the USD and US bond market. A rebound in 2027 remains plausible, but only if the energy shock resolves in the coming months.
This ...
“Design a portfolio you are not likely to trade… akin to premarital counselling advice; try to build a portfolio that you can live with for a long, long time.” Robert Arnott, Research Affiliates
The financial industry has long projected an image of delivering superior returns through complex strategies. And this certainly might be the case for a ...
There is a point, somewhere around early August, when the global oil market runs out of road if current conditions persist. That is not scaremongering. It is arithmetic, and it is worth understanding the working.
The trigger is the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day would ...
Oil at ~US$90-$100/bbl (barrel) represents a ~60% hike in prices from pre-conflict levels, with risks of higher prices omnipresent. Since the commencement of conflict, the ensuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, damage to energy infrastructure in the region and resurgence in global geopolitical uncertainty are conditions to truly test the mettle of ...
Rent is the defining issue of Australia's cost of living crisis. It has risen nearly 40% since 2020 and is consuming a record share of household income. The root cause of the rental crisis is the gap between the number of people who need housing and the number of dwellings being built to house them. The chart below shows an uncomfortable truth: ...
There’s a common belief that as your wealth increases, your capacity to take risk increases as well. After all, when you have more, you can afford to lose more, right?
This might be correct in the extremes, but this argument doesn’t hold in more typical wealth ranges. Why?
Because a dollar isn’t always a dollar. And once you understand this, you’ll ...
Increasingly, super is the next major asset after the family home (sometimes it is the client’s most significant asset, as demonstrated in McIntosh v Mcintosh [2014] QSC 99. It is therefore imperative that any estate planning for your client must also involve planning for their SMSF.
Here are eight things that SMSF trustees could consider:
1. Consider ...
When the Catholic church put a candidate up for sainthood the promoter of the faith was employed as a cannon lawyer to argue against the candidate. The post became known as the devil’s advocate and by taking a skeptical view he acted as a counterpoint to God’s advocate who made the case for canonization.
Today I will be playing the role of devil’s ...
Australia’s capital gains tax has been in the economic and political spotlight for much of the year, with a number of substantial proposals put forward for reform. Ironically, it turns out that the simplest and fairest path forward is the one where we wind the clock back to pre-1999 and directly remove inflationary gains through indexation.
The main ...
Australia has no death duties. We say this often, sometimes with pride, sometimes as a point of distinction from the United States or United Kingdom. But the Australian tax system has been doing some of the same work for years, just under different names and across different provisions. The 2026 federal budget proposed an additional layer.
None of ...
The March of Folly by Barbara Tuchman that was published in 1984 chronicled 30 centuries of governments taking actions against their self-interest, starting with how Trojan rulers dragged inside their walls an odd-looking wooden horse despite warnings of Greek tricks.
If the book was written today, it would surely include the decision by US President ...
Last Tuesday night, Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down one of the most unpopular budgets in Australia's history. He claimed the Budget was about fixing intergenerational inequality and making housing more affordable for first-home buyers. Tell him he's dreaming.
For starters, the term "intergenerational inequality" is a social construct dreamed up by ...
The world economy is not yet sliding into recession, but the outlook has become more difficult. Growth through 2026 will be challenged by the Iran war, the associated oil shock, rising inflation, and weakening confidence in the USD and US bond market. A rebound in 2027 remains plausible, but only if the energy shock resolves in the coming months.
This ...
“Design a portfolio you are not likely to trade… akin to premarital counselling advice; try to build a portfolio that you can live with for a long, long time.” Robert Arnott, Research Affiliates
The financial industry has long projected an image of delivering superior returns through complex strategies. And this certainly might be the case for a ...
There is a point, somewhere around early August, when the global oil market runs out of road if current conditions persist. That is not scaremongering. It is arithmetic, and it is worth understanding the working.
The trigger is the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day would ...
Oil at ~US$90-$100/bbl (barrel) represents a ~60% hike in prices from pre-conflict levels, with risks of higher prices omnipresent. Since the commencement of conflict, the ensuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, damage to energy infrastructure in the region and resurgence in global geopolitical uncertainty are conditions to truly test the mettle of ...
Rent is the defining issue of Australia's cost of living crisis. It has risen nearly 40% since 2020 and is consuming a record share of household income. The root cause of the rental crisis is the gap between the number of people who need housing and the number of dwellings being built to house them. The chart below shows an uncomfortable truth: ...
There’s a common belief that as your wealth increases, your capacity to take risk increases as well. After all, when you have more, you can afford to lose more, right?
This might be correct in the extremes, but this argument doesn’t hold in more typical wealth ranges. Why?
Because a dollar isn’t always a dollar. And once you understand this, you’ll ...
Increasingly, super is the next major asset after the family home (sometimes it is the client’s most significant asset, as demonstrated in McIntosh v Mcintosh [2014] QSC 99. It is therefore imperative that any estate planning for your client must also involve planning for their SMSF.
Here are eight things that SMSF trustees could consider:
1. Consider ...
When the Catholic church put a candidate up for sainthood the promoter of the faith was employed as a cannon lawyer to argue against the candidate. The post became known as the devil’s advocate and by taking a skeptical view he acted as a counterpoint to God’s advocate who made the case for canonization.
Today I will be playing the role of devil’s ...
Australia’s capital gains tax has been in the economic and political spotlight for much of the year, with a number of substantial proposals put forward for reform. Ironically, it turns out that the simplest and fairest path forward is the one where we wind the clock back to pre-1999 and directly remove inflationary gains through indexation.
The main ...
Australia has no death duties. We say this often, sometimes with pride, sometimes as a point of distinction from the United States or United Kingdom. But the Australian tax system has been doing some of the same work for years, just under different names and across different provisions. The 2026 federal budget proposed an additional layer.
None of ...
The March of Folly by Barbara Tuchman that was published in 1984 chronicled 30 centuries of governments taking actions against their self-interest, starting with how Trojan rulers dragged inside their walls an odd-looking wooden horse despite warnings of Greek tricks.
If the book was written today, it would surely include the decision by US President ...
Last Tuesday night, Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down one of the most unpopular budgets in Australia's history. He claimed the Budget was about fixing intergenerational inequality and making housing more affordable for first-home buyers. Tell him he's dreaming.
For starters, the term "intergenerational inequality" is a social construct dreamed up by ...
