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2026 is not 1999

2026 is not 1999

The US market is extremely concentrated, and the bears say 2026 could be 1999 all over again. As in the dot-com boom, a new technology promises to change everything and capital spending is enormous. The Magnificent 7 plus Broadcom, AMD and Micron, the ‘AI Big 10’, now account for 42% of US stock market value. At the height of the dot-com bubble in ...
Taxing time for trusts

Taxing time for trusts

Discretionary trusts have long been a cornerstone of wealth planning. Proposed tax changes may require a rethink, but not necessarily a rebuild. If your family uses a discretionary trust and a bucket company, the post-Budget headlines have been difficult to ignore: "30% minimum tax", "double taxation", and warnings of effective rates above the top ...
Why the US economy is stronger than you might think

Why the US economy is stronger than you might think

If you had told me a year ago that the United States would be waging an intractable war in the Middle East, oil prices would rise to more than $100 a barrel, interest rates would be moving sharply higher, and inflation would be running well above 3%, my forecast for the US economy would have been gloomy to say the least. Yet here we are with consensus ...
How much trust is in your portfolio?

How much trust is in your portfolio?

Herbert Hoover knew Western Australia’s goldfields long before becoming U.S. President in 1929. As a young mining engineer in the 1890s, he worked around Kalgoorlie, where his footprint remains today in the form of many landmarks, not least a grand mirror standing at the entrance of the iconic Palace Hotel. His mining experience likely informed his ...
Retirement in reality – 7 months in

Retirement in reality – 7 months in

For those I haven’t connected with recently, I retired 7 months ago after being a full-time academic, researching retirement planning for nearly 20 years. Now I am focusing on implementing my findings: for myself, for individuals and for organisations. As I promised when I retired, I am providing a month-by-month account of my findings from the other ...
The new geography of technology leadership

The new geography of technology leadership

For much of the past decade, the United States appeared unassailable in technology. Its world-leading universities, deep capital markets and ecosystem of entrepreneurial companies created a durable advantage across software, semiconductors and digital platforms. China, by contrast, was often viewed primarily as a manufacturing power: highly capable, ...
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 683

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 683

I once had a rather amusing interaction with an older gentleman at an investment conference. We'd been discussing artificial intelligence and the speed at which it's embedded itself into every corner of the market. After nodding along for a few minutes, he laughed and declared, "Well, I'm glad I'll be dead soon – I don't have to deal with any of this ...
Higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds

Higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds

The backdrop for global fixed income has changed meaningfully. Yields have moved higher as investors contend with persistent inflation, elevated government borrowing, and uncertainty around the path for interest rates. But that repricing has also created a more attractive starting point for bond investors. Higher starting yields provide greater income ...
Are we in a recession?

Are we in a recession?

Costco is not just a place where you can buy a 2kg cheese wheel and a three-person sauna in the same transaction. The retailer is also in the recession prediction business. When customers started switching from more expensive beef to cheaper proteins, it was a sign household budgets were under pressure. Comments made by Costco’s former chief financial ...
Meg on SMSFs – Division 296 actuarial certificates

Meg on SMSFs – Division 296 actuarial certificates

Never give an actuary a new certificate to talk about it. She will want to talk to you about it or worse, write an article about it. But hear me out: Division 296 actuarial certificates will be interesting. They will drive how an SMSF’s Division 296 earnings are divided between the various member accounts. In other words, they will play a significant ...

2026 is not 1999

2026 is not 1999
The US market is extremely concentrated, and the bears say 2026 could be 1999 all over again. As in the dot-com boom, a new technology promises to change everything and capital spending is enormous. The Magnificent 7 plus Broadcom, AMD and Micron, the ‘AI Big 10’, now account for 42% of US stock market value. At the height of the dot-com bubble in ...

Taxing time for trusts

Taxing time for trusts
Discretionary trusts have long been a cornerstone of wealth planning. Proposed tax changes may require a rethink, but not necessarily a rebuild. If your family uses a discretionary trust and a bucket company, the post-Budget headlines have been difficult to ignore: "30% minimum tax", "double taxation", and warnings of effective rates above the top ...

Why the US economy is stronger than you might think

Why the US economy is stronger than you might think
If you had told me a year ago that the United States would be waging an intractable war in the Middle East, oil prices would rise to more than $100 a barrel, interest rates would be moving sharply higher, and inflation would be running well above 3%, my forecast for the US economy would have been gloomy to say the least. Yet here we are with consensus ...

How much trust is in your portfolio?

How much trust is in your portfolio?
Herbert Hoover knew Western Australia’s goldfields long before becoming U.S. President in 1929. As a young mining engineer in the 1890s, he worked around Kalgoorlie, where his footprint remains today in the form of many landmarks, not least a grand mirror standing at the entrance of the iconic Palace Hotel. His mining experience likely informed his ...

Retirement in reality – 7 months in

Retirement in reality – 7 months in
For those I haven’t connected with recently, I retired 7 months ago after being a full-time academic, researching retirement planning for nearly 20 years. Now I am focusing on implementing my findings: for myself, for individuals and for organisations. As I promised when I retired, I am providing a month-by-month account of my findings from the other ...

The new geography of technology leadership

The new geography of technology leadership
For much of the past decade, the United States appeared unassailable in technology. Its world-leading universities, deep capital markets and ecosystem of entrepreneurial companies created a durable advantage across software, semiconductors and digital platforms. China, by contrast, was often viewed primarily as a manufacturing power: highly capable, ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 683

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 683
I once had a rather amusing interaction with an older gentleman at an investment conference. We'd been discussing artificial intelligence and the speed at which it's embedded itself into every corner of the market. After nodding along for a few minutes, he laughed and declared, "Well, I'm glad I'll be dead soon – I don't have to deal with any of this ...

Higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds

Higher yields are creating opportunities in global bonds
The backdrop for global fixed income has changed meaningfully. Yields have moved higher as investors contend with persistent inflation, elevated government borrowing, and uncertainty around the path for interest rates. But that repricing has also created a more attractive starting point for bond investors. Higher starting yields provide greater income ...

Are we in a recession?

Are we in a recession?
Costco is not just a place where you can buy a 2kg cheese wheel and a three-person sauna in the same transaction. The retailer is also in the recession prediction business. When customers started switching from more expensive beef to cheaper proteins, it was a sign household budgets were under pressure. Comments made by Costco’s former chief financial ...

Meg on SMSFs – Division 296 actuarial certificates

Meg on SMSFs – Division 296 actuarial certificates
Never give an actuary a new certificate to talk about it. She will want to talk to you about it or worse, write an article about it. But hear me out: Division 296 actuarial certificates will be interesting. They will drive how an SMSF’s Division 296 earnings are divided between the various member accounts. In other words, they will play a significant ...