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Ranking three common retirement strategies

Ranking three common retirement strategies

The more your money works for you, the less you have to work for money.- Idowu Koyenikan I have a mate who is considering retiring early. He has outlined twenty different scenarios to solve the universal problem of retirement – how do you convert a pool of assets into cash to pay for life. Most investing commentary is focused on accumulating assets. ...
Was life really better in the good old days?

Was life really better in the good old days?

Key points Angst about economic conditions has been running high in recent times. This is evident in chronically low consumer confidence readings and a downtrend in measures of happiness. It’s also arguably evident in the rise of populist parties globally and more recently in Australia. There is no doubt that some things were better a generation or ...
Who gains in an AI-supercharged economy?

Who gains in an AI-supercharged economy?

This commentary was first published by Project Syndicate and is republished with permission. At Vanguard, we anticipate 3% U.S. GDP growth in 2027, an estimate that is noticeably higher than other professional forecasts, implying continued strong support for risk assets. Such growth will not represent incremental improvements, but rather a fundamental ...
Div 296’s million-dollar reset worth $25,000

Div 296’s million-dollar reset worth $25,000

Since the $3 million super tax became law in March, one word has carried the industry's entire message: 'protect'. Make the cost base reset election and you 'protect' the gains your fund built before July. Miss it and decades of growth are 'exposed'. The word worked. Adviser notes spent June urging trustees to commission valuations before the deadline, ...
The forecasting fix that Wall Street missed

The forecasting fix that Wall Street missed

Ask any finance professor what drives stock prices, and the standard answer is discount rates—the expected return investors demand for holding risky assets. When investors become more fearful, they demand a higher return, and prices fall. When optimism returns, the required return drops, and prices rise. This is the backbone of modern asset pricing, ...
Should a fund manager invest their own money differently?

Should a fund manager invest their own money differently?

I have never been a strong believer in the notion that a fund manager should invest their clients’ assets ‘as if it were their own money’. It is a neat heuristic that I am not sure works consistently in practice. The reality is that there is likely to be a gap between a fund manager’s personal and professional investments, and that difference can tell ...
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669

Something has been bothering me. The recent budget has produced its usual flurry of commentary (and rightfully so). However, one thing that has stood out over the last month or so, is a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Perhaps not only a product of the measures themselves, but the contradictory explanations offered by those responsible for them. June ...
Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

To get its capital gains tax and negative gearing changes through the Parliament, the Government agreed to act on one of the Greens’ longstanding bugbears : SMSFs borrowing to buy residential property. Obviously this is bad news for those about to embark on a borrowing – so what exactly is happening and how will it impact SMSFs? What is changing? In ...
Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

The change came a long way back—but at first it didn’t show. The manner remains intact for some time after the morale cracks.- F Scott Fitzgerald The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook puts the Australian share market at the top of the global leaderboard for returns since 1900. Australia has the highest returns over the 123 years of ...
The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

In reference to the proposed new capital gains tax arrangements before parliament, Anthony Albanese told the House of Representatives post-budget that, “we’re moving towards the system that was in place before 1999 to tax real gains, not nominal gains.” Except that that is not entirely true. Yes, indexing the capital cost base to inflation is being ...
The next phase of Australian equity leadership

The next phase of Australian equity leadership

Australian equities are navigating an increasingly complex macro backdrop. Inflation remains above the RBA’s target range, geopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains and energy markets, and the path for interest rates is proving more uncertain than expected at the start of the year. While the domestic economy has held up relatively well, higher ...

Ranking three common retirement strategies

Ranking three common retirement strategies
The more your money works for you, the less you have to work for money.- Idowu Koyenikan I have a mate who is considering retiring early. He has outlined twenty different scenarios to solve the universal problem of retirement – how do you convert a pool of assets into cash to pay for life. Most investing commentary is focused on accumulating assets. ...

Was life really better in the good old days?

Was life really better in the good old days?
Key points Angst about economic conditions has been running high in recent times. This is evident in chronically low consumer confidence readings and a downtrend in measures of happiness. It’s also arguably evident in the rise of populist parties globally and more recently in Australia. There is no doubt that some things were better a generation or ...

Who gains in an AI-supercharged economy?

Who gains in an AI-supercharged economy?
This commentary was first published by Project Syndicate and is republished with permission. At Vanguard, we anticipate 3% U.S. GDP growth in 2027, an estimate that is noticeably higher than other professional forecasts, implying continued strong support for risk assets. Such growth will not represent incremental improvements, but rather a fundamental ...

Div 296’s million-dollar reset worth $25,000

Div 296’s million-dollar reset worth $25,000
Since the $3 million super tax became law in March, one word has carried the industry's entire message: 'protect'. Make the cost base reset election and you 'protect' the gains your fund built before July. Miss it and decades of growth are 'exposed'. The word worked. Adviser notes spent June urging trustees to commission valuations before the deadline, ...

The forecasting fix that Wall Street missed

The forecasting fix that Wall Street missed
Ask any finance professor what drives stock prices, and the standard answer is discount rates—the expected return investors demand for holding risky assets. When investors become more fearful, they demand a higher return, and prices fall. When optimism returns, the required return drops, and prices rise. This is the backbone of modern asset pricing, ...

Should a fund manager invest their own money differently?

Should a fund manager invest their own money differently?
I have never been a strong believer in the notion that a fund manager should invest their clients’ assets ‘as if it were their own money’. It is a neat heuristic that I am not sure works consistently in practice. The reality is that there is likely to be a gap between a fund manager’s personal and professional investments, and that difference can tell ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 669
Something has been bothering me. The recent budget has produced its usual flurry of commentary (and rightfully so). However, one thing that has stood out over the last month or so, is a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Perhaps not only a product of the measures themselves, but the contradictory explanations offered by those responsible for them. June ...

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?
To get its capital gains tax and negative gearing changes through the Parliament, the Government agreed to act on one of the Greens’ longstanding bugbears : SMSFs borrowing to buy residential property. Obviously this is bad news for those about to embark on a borrowing – so what exactly is happening and how will it impact SMSFs? What is changing? In ...

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world
The change came a long way back—but at first it didn’t show. The manner remains intact for some time after the morale cracks.- F Scott Fitzgerald The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook puts the Australian share market at the top of the global leaderboard for returns since 1900. Australia has the highest returns over the 123 years of ...

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax
In reference to the proposed new capital gains tax arrangements before parliament, Anthony Albanese told the House of Representatives post-budget that, “we’re moving towards the system that was in place before 1999 to tax real gains, not nominal gains.” Except that that is not entirely true. Yes, indexing the capital cost base to inflation is being ...

The next phase of Australian equity leadership

The next phase of Australian equity leadership
Australian equities are navigating an increasingly complex macro backdrop. Inflation remains above the RBA’s target range, geopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains and energy markets, and the path for interest rates is proving more uncertain than expected at the start of the year. While the domestic economy has held up relatively well, higher ...