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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 658

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 658

I’ve been reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book 1929. It follows some of the leading players on Wall Street and Washington during the 1920s bull market, the crash, and the subsequent economic and political fallout. Markets are complex and there is seldom a single factor that leads to a crash. Yet Sorkin shows that the magnitude of the crash and ...
Do super funds need a massive wake up call?

Do super funds need a massive wake up call?

“While Australia is a world leader in accumulation it’s significantly behind the curve on decumulation.” So says Guy Opperman, an energetic man of many talents. His CV includes stints as a steeplechase jockey, a barrister, and a pro-bono advocate for prisoners on death row in the Caribbean. But it was during his years as the UK Minister for Pensions ...
Sequencing risk resurfaces for retirees

Sequencing risk resurfaces for retirees

In 2014, I examined sequencing risk in late accumulation with a thought experiment involving two fictional 55-year-olds, William and Edward. Both started with the same superannuation balance, earned identical salaries, and achieved the same annualised return of 7.1% per annum over ten years; yet Edward's final balance at retirement exceeded William's ...
There will be no permanent underclass

There will be no permanent underclass

For months now there’s been an online joke that anyone who doesn’t learn about AI will be a part of the “permanent underclass.” The permanent underclass represents the new have-nots of society—all of those who will be left behind in the coming AI wave. While a subset of the population will have all of their work done by LLM-powered agents, the ...
Reforming the taxation of wealth and wealth transfers

Reforming the taxation of wealth and wealth transfers

This article is based on Asprey and the Taxation of Wealth: Where to Next? by Chris Evans, Rick Krever, and Peter Mellor. In the face of growing wealth inequality between and within nations, attention in almost all developed economies has turned to the possible use of wealth or wealth transfer taxation to ameliorate the divide. Fifty years after ...
Structured giving’s new moment

Structured giving’s new moment

It has been a big year for philanthropy policy. The minimum distribution rate for ancillary funds has increased. A new tax deductible giving structure -  the Community Charity Trust - has formally arrived, taking structured giving into donor communities it has never been able to reach. And Division 296 has prompted a fresh conversation about where ...
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 657

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 657

When I was teenager and living outside of New York I used to listen to a radio station called WFAN. For 24 hours a day the station was dedicated to sport. Most of the programming involved a host arguing with callers about some esoteric sporting topic – player A was better than player B, etc. This was one of my less harmful teenage vices but it is hard ...
War can’t be good, can it?

War can’t be good, can it?

What’s war good for? With apologies to Motown songwriters Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong, absolutely nothing from humanity’s point of view. While the human cost of conflict - measured in lives lost, families displaced, and immense suffering - is profound and undeniable, the historical relationship between geopolitical chaos and long-term equity ...
Origins of the mislabeled capital gains tax ‘discount’

Origins of the mislabeled capital gains tax ‘discount’

The debate around the capital gains tax (CGT) ‘discount’ is really heating up due to budgetary pressures, and arguments around ‘intergenerational equity’ and housing affordability. But the so-called ‘discount’ is not a concession, rather it is an ‘adjustment’ to approximate gains arising from inflation that should not be taxed. Prior to 1999, the cost ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 658

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 658
I’ve been reading Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book 1929. It follows some of the leading players on Wall Street and Washington during the 1920s bull market, the crash, and the subsequent economic and political fallout. Markets are complex and there is seldom a single factor that leads to a crash. Yet Sorkin shows that the magnitude of the crash and ...

Do super funds need a massive wake up call?

Do super funds need a massive wake up call?
“While Australia is a world leader in accumulation it’s significantly behind the curve on decumulation.” So says Guy Opperman, an energetic man of many talents. His CV includes stints as a steeplechase jockey, a barrister, and a pro-bono advocate for prisoners on death row in the Caribbean. But it was during his years as the UK Minister for Pensions ...

Sequencing risk resurfaces for retirees

Sequencing risk resurfaces for retirees
In 2014, I examined sequencing risk in late accumulation with a thought experiment involving two fictional 55-year-olds, William and Edward. Both started with the same superannuation balance, earned identical salaries, and achieved the same annualised return of 7.1% per annum over ten years; yet Edward's final balance at retirement exceeded William's ...

There will be no permanent underclass

There will be no permanent underclass
For months now there’s been an online joke that anyone who doesn’t learn about AI will be a part of the “permanent underclass.” The permanent underclass represents the new have-nots of society—all of those who will be left behind in the coming AI wave. While a subset of the population will have all of their work done by LLM-powered agents, the ...

Reforming the taxation of wealth and wealth transfers

Reforming the taxation of wealth and wealth transfers
This article is based on Asprey and the Taxation of Wealth: Where to Next? by Chris Evans, Rick Krever, and Peter Mellor. In the face of growing wealth inequality between and within nations, attention in almost all developed economies has turned to the possible use of wealth or wealth transfer taxation to ameliorate the divide. Fifty years after ...

Structured giving’s new moment

Structured giving’s new moment
It has been a big year for philanthropy policy. The minimum distribution rate for ancillary funds has increased. A new tax deductible giving structure -  the Community Charity Trust - has formally arrived, taking structured giving into donor communities it has never been able to reach. And Division 296 has prompted a fresh conversation about where ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 657

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 657
When I was teenager and living outside of New York I used to listen to a radio station called WFAN. For 24 hours a day the station was dedicated to sport. Most of the programming involved a host arguing with callers about some esoteric sporting topic – player A was better than player B, etc. This was one of my less harmful teenage vices but it is hard ...

War can’t be good, can it?

War can’t be good, can it?
What’s war good for? With apologies to Motown songwriters Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong, absolutely nothing from humanity’s point of view. While the human cost of conflict - measured in lives lost, families displaced, and immense suffering - is profound and undeniable, the historical relationship between geopolitical chaos and long-term equity ...

Origins of the mislabeled capital gains tax ‘discount’

Origins of the mislabeled capital gains tax ‘discount’
The debate around the capital gains tax (CGT) ‘discount’ is really heating up due to budgetary pressures, and arguments around ‘intergenerational equity’ and housing affordability. But the so-called ‘discount’ is not a concession, rather it is an ‘adjustment’ to approximate gains arising from inflation that should not be taxed. Prior to 1999, the cost ...