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Central banks need higher inflation targets

Central banks need higher inflation targets

In 1971, an uncle of Don Brash, the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from 1988 to 2002, invested the proceeds from selling his fruit farm in 18-year government bonds yielding 5.4%. At that time, the uncle’s NZ$30,000 could buy 11 four-cylinder cars. But when the bonds matured in 1989 the NZ$30,000 could buy only one of those cars. Inflation, ...
Alpha isn’t dead. You’ve just been measuring it wrong

Alpha isn’t dead. You’ve just been measuring it wrong

For decades, investors and academics have been locked in a hunt for alpha—the holy grail of risk-adjusted returns that can’t be explained by known market factors. The quest has grown so frenzied it spawned what John Cochrane famously called the factor zoo: a sprawling menagerie of hundreds of documented anomalies, each claiming to produce excess ...
The case for staying the course in credit

The case for staying the course in credit

When we think about the current volatility, we are reminded of a prescient quote from Russian revolutionary and president Vladmir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen.” Time will tell whether the Iran war is indeed one of these periods where decades happened. As for markets domestically, higher oil ...
One risk after another

One risk after another

At any given point in time, there is one major investment risk that becomes the focus of everyone’s attention. Sometimes this will be a new and significant event (such as the war in Iran); other times it will be a risk that has lain dormant but suddenly becomes the thing to care about (like the recent AI/software company flare-up). The problem is not ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 655

The market continues to swerve with each new development in the Middle East. This can be a scary time for investors which increases the chance of making mistakes. These are three quotes I come back to when markets are volatile. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Mike Tyson Yes, I am talking about Mike Tyson. The one with the ...
The thin line between investing and gambling

The thin line between investing and gambling

Ben Graham was born in England and moved with his family to the US when he was 1 year old. His father took the family to New York to set up a new branch of a successful family business. This was far from the prototypical immigrant experience. His family was wealthy and moved to 5th Avenue in a house staffed by domestic servants. This lifestyle would ...
Are we running out of gold?

Are we running out of gold?

Mined gold production reached a record high in 2025, based on our 2025 Gold Demand Trends report(Chart 1). Global miners produced 3,672 tonnes of gold, a modest year-on-year increase of 1% and the highest in our data series – albeit this may be subject to revisions when more data becomes available.[1] And we expect mined gold production to further ...

Central banks need higher inflation targets

Central banks need higher inflation targets
In 1971, an uncle of Don Brash, the governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from 1988 to 2002, invested the proceeds from selling his fruit farm in 18-year government bonds yielding 5.4%. At that time, the uncle’s NZ$30,000 could buy 11 four-cylinder cars. But when the bonds matured in 1989 the NZ$30,000 could buy only one of those cars. Inflation, ...

Alpha isn’t dead. You’ve just been measuring it wrong

Alpha isn’t dead. You’ve just been measuring it wrong
For decades, investors and academics have been locked in a hunt for alpha—the holy grail of risk-adjusted returns that can’t be explained by known market factors. The quest has grown so frenzied it spawned what John Cochrane famously called the factor zoo: a sprawling menagerie of hundreds of documented anomalies, each claiming to produce excess ...

The case for staying the course in credit

The case for staying the course in credit
When we think about the current volatility, we are reminded of a prescient quote from Russian revolutionary and president Vladmir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen.” Time will tell whether the Iran war is indeed one of these periods where decades happened. As for markets domestically, higher oil ...

One risk after another

One risk after another
At any given point in time, there is one major investment risk that becomes the focus of everyone’s attention. Sometimes this will be a new and significant event (such as the war in Iran); other times it will be a risk that has lain dormant but suddenly becomes the thing to care about (like the recent AI/software company flare-up). The problem is not ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 655

The market continues to swerve with each new development in the Middle East. This can be a scary time for investors which increases the chance of making mistakes. These are three quotes I come back to when markets are volatile. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Mike Tyson Yes, I am talking about Mike Tyson. The one with the ...

The thin line between investing and gambling

The thin line between investing and gambling
Ben Graham was born in England and moved with his family to the US when he was 1 year old. His father took the family to New York to set up a new branch of a successful family business. This was far from the prototypical immigrant experience. His family was wealthy and moved to 5th Avenue in a house staffed by domestic servants. This lifestyle would ...

Are we running out of gold?

Are we running out of gold?
Mined gold production reached a record high in 2025, based on our 2025 Gold Demand Trends report(Chart 1). Global miners produced 3,672 tonnes of gold, a modest year-on-year increase of 1% and the highest in our data series – albeit this may be subject to revisions when more data becomes available.[1] And we expect mined gold production to further ...