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The ageing ‘crisis’ has not and will not happen

The ageing ‘crisis’ has not and will not happen

I have written many times about why fears about ageing are misplaced. For starters, we have panicked about it for a century. Also, the reality is that we aren’t adding extra old years at the end of life. Instead, we are stretching out our entire lives. We work to older ages, but start work later, too. Women work a larger share of their lives. Here’s my ...
How does the 4% rule stack up?

How does the 4% rule stack up?

How much can retirees safely withdraw from their portfolios? That’s one of the issues we’ve been addressing in our annual The State of Retirement Income report since November 2021. The study differs from some other widely used research on safe withdrawal rates in that it relies on forward-looking estimates for future market returns, as opposed to ...
Four charts that expose market concentration risk

Four charts that expose market concentration risk

Since ChatGPT launched in 2022, some AI-related stocks have soared to record highs despite elevated inflation, sweeping tariffs and war in the Middle East. A small group of companies now make up an outsized share of the US market, pushing concentration to levels not seen in decades. That means investors in some index funds may be holding unintended ...
The case for gearing beyond property

The case for gearing beyond property

The Federal Government’s restriction to negative gearing for residential property investment has sparked talk that people may instead borrow money to buy shares. That may seem like an alien concept to Australians unfamiliar with the use of “gearing” in sharemarkets, or a painful reminder to others of losses incurred during the Global Financial Crisis. ...
Australia’s $1 trillion debt pile

Australia’s $1 trillion debt pile

Sensational headlines this week - Australian government debt hitting A$1 trillion and the US hitting $40 trillion! But how serious are they really? Here is an update of my ‘Debt Olympics’ chart showing all levels of debt (government, corporate, household) since 2000. Click to enlarge The chart shows gross debt as a percentage of national income (GDP) ...
Has 100 years of growth made us any happier?

Has 100 years of growth made us any happier?

Recently, I was fascinated to read that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a Ministry of Happiness. And I thought, “how appropriate”, when it is something we are continually striving for in life. Yet most nations, including Australia, tend to measure progress and wellbeing using proxy measures such as GDP per capita. And I couldn’t help thinking, are ...
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 676

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 676

If there’s one industry that attracts an unusual number of snake oil salesmen, it’s probably this one. Spending some time around markets eventually reveals the economist who knows what’s coming next, the fundie who has discovered a secret that somehow remains hidden from every other investor on the planet. In most professions, expertise can be observed ...
Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Treasury’s latest exposure draft landed on 4th August, and gives genuine testamentary trusts and deceased estates an important exemption from the proposed 30% minimum tax on capital gains. That is the good news. The less good news is that two of the most obvious problems, namely what happens when assets move on death or on divorce, have been ...
How much super should you have?

How much super should you have?

I recently wrote an article about why your super isn’t going to be enough. Part of the reason that you’re likely underestimating how much you need in superannuation is that it’s based on a best guess or other people’s circumstances. Most people don’t come up with a personalised estimate based on the vision you have for your retirement or your likely ...
Retiring from work is easy, retiring into life is harder

Retiring from work is easy, retiring into life is harder

Most retirement planning conversations revolve around the financial side of the equation. People spend decades focusing on how much they need to save, when they can afford to retire, how their portfolio should be invested, and whether their assets will support the lifestyle they envision. Those questions matter, but many retirees discover that the ...

The ageing ‘crisis’ has not and will not happen

The ageing ‘crisis’ has not and will not happen
I have written many times about why fears about ageing are misplaced. For starters, we have panicked about it for a century. Also, the reality is that we aren’t adding extra old years at the end of life. Instead, we are stretching out our entire lives. We work to older ages, but start work later, too. Women work a larger share of their lives. Here’s my ...

How does the 4% rule stack up?

How does the 4% rule stack up?
How much can retirees safely withdraw from their portfolios? That’s one of the issues we’ve been addressing in our annual The State of Retirement Income report since November 2021. The study differs from some other widely used research on safe withdrawal rates in that it relies on forward-looking estimates for future market returns, as opposed to ...

Four charts that expose market concentration risk

Four charts that expose market concentration risk
Since ChatGPT launched in 2022, some AI-related stocks have soared to record highs despite elevated inflation, sweeping tariffs and war in the Middle East. A small group of companies now make up an outsized share of the US market, pushing concentration to levels not seen in decades. That means investors in some index funds may be holding unintended ...

The case for gearing beyond property

The case for gearing beyond property
The Federal Government’s restriction to negative gearing for residential property investment has sparked talk that people may instead borrow money to buy shares. That may seem like an alien concept to Australians unfamiliar with the use of “gearing” in sharemarkets, or a painful reminder to others of losses incurred during the Global Financial Crisis. ...

Australia’s $1 trillion debt pile

Australia’s $1 trillion debt pile
Sensational headlines this week - Australian government debt hitting A$1 trillion and the US hitting $40 trillion! But how serious are they really? Here is an update of my ‘Debt Olympics’ chart showing all levels of debt (government, corporate, household) since 2000. Click to enlarge The chart shows gross debt as a percentage of national income (GDP) ...

Has 100 years of growth made us any happier?

Has 100 years of growth made us any happier?
Recently, I was fascinated to read that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a Ministry of Happiness. And I thought, “how appropriate”, when it is something we are continually striving for in life. Yet most nations, including Australia, tend to measure progress and wellbeing using proxy measures such as GDP per capita. And I couldn’t help thinking, are ...

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 676

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 676
If there’s one industry that attracts an unusual number of snake oil salesmen, it’s probably this one. Spending some time around markets eventually reveals the economist who knows what’s coming next, the fundie who has discovered a secret that somehow remains hidden from every other investor on the planet. In most professions, expertise can be observed ...

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption
Treasury’s latest exposure draft landed on 4th August, and gives genuine testamentary trusts and deceased estates an important exemption from the proposed 30% minimum tax on capital gains. That is the good news. The less good news is that two of the most obvious problems, namely what happens when assets move on death or on divorce, have been ...

How much super should you have?

How much super should you have?
I recently wrote an article about why your super isn’t going to be enough. Part of the reason that you’re likely underestimating how much you need in superannuation is that it’s based on a best guess or other people’s circumstances. Most people don’t come up with a personalised estimate based on the vision you have for your retirement or your likely ...

Retiring from work is easy, retiring into life is harder

Retiring from work is easy, retiring into life is harder
Most retirement planning conversations revolve around the financial side of the equation. People spend decades focusing on how much they need to save, when they can afford to retire, how their portfolio should be invested, and whether their assets will support the lifestyle they envision. Those questions matter, but many retirees discover that the ...